ESPN projection system gives 49ers best odds to win Super Bowl 59 originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
The 49ers will win their sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy in 2025 — according to an NFL projection system, that is.
In a recent article, Seth Walder of ESPN’s analytics department revealed that ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts San Francisco has the best odds to win Super Bowl LIX over rival contenders.
In a recent article, ESPN’s Seth Walder department revealed that Football Power Index (FPI) predicts San Francisco has the best odds to win Super Bowl LIX over rival contenders.
Here are, in order of highest percentages, the five favorites to win it all next season:
49ers (16 percent), Kansas City Chiefs (12 percent), Detroit Lions (10 percent), Dallas Cowboys (nine percent) and Baltimore Ravens (eight percent).
Of course “Cowboys” doesn’t pair well with anything close to “Super Bowl winner,” so the projection system might not be too accurate. However, it’s an otherwise promising outlook for San Francisco’s next season, which usually isn’t the case for the previous season’s Super Bowl loser.
“The 49ers’ edge in quality over the Ravens and Chiefs is narrow, but because San Francisco plays in the weaker NFC, its championship chances (16%) are notably higher than any other club’s,” Walder said. “San Francisco has a 25% chance to reach the Super Bowl and a 16% chance to win it — both best in the league.
“We can debate the true division of credit among quarterback Brock Purdy, coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ plethora of talented skill position players, but it all adds up to a championship contender as long as running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle remain healthy and productive…”
Ironically, FPI expects San Francisco to face Kansas City in the Super Bowl yet again. In order of highest percentage, here are the six most-expected Super Bowl LIX matchups:
49ers vs. Chiefs (six percent), 49ers vs. Ravens (four percent), Lions vs. Chiefs (four percent), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chiefs (4), Cowboys vs. Chiefs (four percent) and 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills (three percent).
Walden concluded by sharing FPI’s projected conference championship game. In order of highest percentage, here are the seven most likely NFC Championship Games:
49ers vs. Lions (nine percent), 49ers vs. Eagles (eight percent), 49ers vs. Cowboys (eight percent), Lions vs. Eagles (six percent), Lions vs. Cowboys (six percent), 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (five percent) and 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons (four percent).
San Francisco is all over FPI’s projections.
While the Faithfull — rightfully so — likely prefer real results over predictive calculations, it still is noteworthy that super-advanced computers view the 49ers in a positive light before they take over the world.
San Francisco just needs to finish the job in what would be their third Super Bowl appearance since the 2019 NFL season.