Kyler Murray has peaked at 251 passing yards in a game this year.
Murray is coming off a torn ACL and his weapons are far from ideal. He is also learning a new system. All these perfectly reasonable excuses aside, things haven’t been great for the young quarterback in 2023. He ranks 24th in EPA per play and 30th in CPOE.
Bijan Robinson has the ninth-most targets (74) for a rookie running back since 2000.
At his current pace, Robinson will end the year with 84 targets. That would put him behind only Saquon Barkley, Reggie Bush, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Najee Harris.
Lamar Jackson is on pace for the fewest passing touchdowns by an MVP quarterback since 1987.
With a dominant win over the 49ers in Week 16, Jackson overtook Brock Purdy as the MVP favorite. He is on pace for 22 passing touchdowns and has only converted five scores on the ground. John Elway threw for 19 scores in a strike-shortened 1987 season. One big reason for his low touchdown total is the team’s use of Gus Edwards at the goal line. Baltimore ranks seventh in the league in touchdowns from inside the five, but Jackson is only 24th among quarterbacks in total touchdowns from that area of the field.
Josh Allen is on pace to score the second-most rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a single season.
He is on pace for 15 rushing scores, which would be the record if Jalen Hurts didn’t already have as many this year. The big difference between the two is that Allen has seven scores from more than three yards out. Hurts has two such touchdowns.
Bryce Young was Pro Football Focus’s No. 4 graded passer in Week 16.
His 81.3 passing grade was the highest of his rookie season. It was just his second game over a passing grade of 70. Week 16 also saw Young throw for more than 250 yards for the first time. He hit 312 passing yards.
Khalil Herbert set a season-high in carries (20).
He ran for 112 yards and a touchdown. Roschon Johnson only saw nine carries. D’Onta Foreman was inactive for personal reasons. Foreman is expected to return this week, once again throwing the Chicago backfield into turmoil.
Tee Higgins has earned a 44 percent air yards share since returning to the lineup in Week 13.
All but one of those games were played with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup. His target share of 17 percent is pedestrian, but his aDOT of 15.7 gives him an elite upside (and a terrifying floor). He caught five passes for 140 yards and a score in Week 16.
Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco leads all quarterbacks in passing yards (1,307) over the past four weeks.
Flacco is also tied for first in passing touchdowns. As the kids would say, he is him.
Dak Prescott has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 8-of-9 games since the Cowboys’ bye week.
CeeDee Lamb, in turn, has eight touchdowns over that stretch. He also has five 100-yard games since his team’s bye.
Jarrett Stidham has the second-most passing yards for a Day 3 rookie in his first start in NFL history (365).
Why is this relevant?
Stidham saw two starts at the end of the 2022 season. He came back to Earth in the second, throwing for 219 yards and one score compared to three in his first, but he was far from a disaster.
Jahmyr Gibbs is on pace to have the 11th-most touchdowns for a rookie running since 2000.
Gibbs has 10 touchdowns in 13 games and is on pace to end the year with a dozen scores despite missing two contests. He didn’t score his first touchdown until Week 7.
The Packers have one player with a receiving touchdown this year who has been in the league for more than two years.
That is Aaron Jones, who has exactly one receiving touchdown. Every other scoring pass Jordan Love has thrown has gone to a first or second-year player. The Packers don’t have a superstar receiver to rely on, but they have a lot of strong role players who are young and won’t cost them much for the next two to three seasons.
Houston Texans
Devin Singletary saw 60 percent of the Texans’ carries.
Over the past three weeks, Singletary has seen 70 percent of the Texans’ carries. Frustratingly, he was subbed off on passing downs for Dare Ogunbowale in Week 16. If C.J. Stroud is back for Week 17, the Texans will be favorites at home versus the Titans. That will be a great spot for Singletary to get home on the ground, but Stroud needs to be in the lineup.
Josh Downs earned more than five targets for the first time since Week 12.
Gardner Minshew looked his way nine times. Michael Pittman did not play last week and his status for Week 17 is up in the air. If he can’t go, Downs could close out the fantasy season with WR2 numbers.
Travis Etienne scored more than 20 PPR points five times in his first eight games and hasn’t done so since.
The Jaguars went 6-2 over their first eight games and are 2-5 since. Etienne’s role hasn’t changed much throughout the year, but the lack of much downhill game script has crushed his fantasy output.
The Chiefs have scored fewer than 20 points six times this year.
Half of all of the games Patrick Mahomes has started and scored fewer than 20 points in have come this year. He ranks 18th in yards per attempt and eighth in EPA per play.
Zamir White has seen 71 percent of the Raiders’ carries over the past two weeks.
He has also run a route on 60 percent of Aidan O’Connell dropbacks. He has been nearly a one-for-one replacement for Josh Jacobs since the latter went down. Jacobs did not practice on Wednesday and looks unlikely to suit up this week.
Gerald Everett has a 26 percent target share over the past two weeks.
Keenan Allen is unlikely to return from his heel injury this week and Joshua Palmer entered the concussion protocol after Week 16. Everett’s target volume puts him on the edge of the TE1 ranks for Week 17.
Matthew Stafford is averaging 278 yards and 2.8 touchdowns over his past five games.
Those numbers would rank fourth and first in the NFL on the season. Both of his top two receivers are averaging over 16 PPR points per game during that stretch while Kyren Williams is up to 23 points per game.
De’Von Achane hasn’t topped 12 touches or scored since Week 13.
Achane has only seen 27 percent of the Dolphins’ carries in his past three games, though he does have a 16 percent target share. Achane’s role in the air and his ability to hit a home run at any time will keep him in the RB2 ranks for Week 17, but that may be overvaluing both of those attributes.
Ty Chandler earned 80 percent of the Vikings’ carries.
Chandler only tallied eight attempts but that total was so low because the Vikings didn’t get to establish their ground game in a back-and-forth affair with the Lions. He should remain ranked inside the top 24 running backs for Week 17.
Demario Douglas saw 26 percent of the Patriots’ targets.
He also earned a 37 percent air yards share. He has a 24 percent target share over his past five appearances. Douglas has proven to be a strong target earner whenever healthy. The Pats will almost certainly add receiving talent via the draft in the offseason, but Douglas will remain an integral part of the rotation in 2024.
Derek Carr is tied for the most 300-yard passing games in the NFL this year (six).
C.J. Stroud is the other quarterback sitting atop that specific set of rankings. For the bulk of the season, Carr’s spike weeks were not resulting in touchdowns. Fantasy managers who stuck with Carr all season—congratulations on the ninth-place finish by the way—have been rewarded with eight touchdowns over the past three weeks.
Darren Waller ran a route on 71 percent of the Giants’ dropbacks.
That’s a 22 percent increase compared to Week 15. He also boosted his target share by four points to 19 percent. Waller will be a fringe TE1 for the final week of the fantasy season.
Breece Hall has as many receiving yards as Christian McCaffrey (537).
At 65 receptions, Hall has more catches than CMC. This has been made possible in part by all of his various quarterbacks only being capable of checking the ball down. Even still, his usage through the air can’t be undersold.
Jalen Hurts ranks fifth all-time in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks.
Hurts is 25 years old and in his third season as a starter. He already has the single-season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback plus another top-five season to his name.
George Pickens’ 195 receiving yards were the most for a Steelers receiver in a single game since Antonio Brown in 2017.
That’s the sixth-most yards for a Steelers receiver in a single game since 2000. Pickens has been in the league three fewer years than Diontae Johnson and has as many 100-yard games.
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy joined Sam Howell as the only quarterbacks with a four-touchdown game and a four-interception game this year.
Purdy was decimated by the Ravens’ defense, throwing four interceptions before exiting the game with a stinger. He went from a considerable favorite to win the MVP before the game to a long-shot by the fourth quarter.
Kenneth Walker has seen 79 percent of the Seahawks’ carries in each of the past two weeks.
Walker’s route rate is down from where it started the season but has fully reclaimed his team’s rush attempts. He has 35 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown in his previous two appearances combined.
Baker Mayfield ranks seventh in EPA per play this year.
Mayfield is only 17th in PFF passing grade and 15th in CPOE, so he is likely getting lucky in some spots and picking up more yards than expected from YAC. Still, he is on pace to set career highs in yards and touchdowns while cutting his sack rate and interception rate below their career averages.
Derrick Henry has five passing touchdowns on 10 career attempts including the playoffs.
Henry got home with a passing touchdown on yet another trick play from the Titans in Week 16.
There’s an argument to be made that Henry is the best quarterback in the NFL this year. He has lined up as a quarterback 10 times. He completed his only pass out of the formation for a two-yard score and has seven carries for 89 yards, three first downs, and a touchdown.
Jacoby Brissett is averaging 12.3 adjusted yards per attempt.
For reference, Sam Howell is at 5.8 AY/A. An unsustainable touchdown rate of 13 percent and no interceptions have buoyed Brissett’s advanced metrics, but he makes it readily apparent that he is an upgrade over Howell every time he takes the field.