If it’s Game 3 of the World Series for the Dodgers, Walker Buehler must be on the mound.
Just as he did in 2018 and 2020, Buehler is starting Game 3 of the World Series for the Dodgers on Monday. The Dodgers won both of his previous two World Series starts, where he went a combined 13 innings with just five hits, one run, one walk and 17 strikeouts.
“I feel great having Walker take the baseball on the road against a team that hasn’t seen him a whole bunch,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “He’s a big game pitcher, and every game in the World Series is a big game. We have an opportunity to put some distance in this series.”
That said, this isn’t that Walker Buehler, who underwent his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, returning this season. In 2018 — three years removed from his first Tommy John — Buehler started Game 3 against the Red Sox and hit 100 mph with his fastball, averaging 98 mph. In 2020 against the Rays, he averaged 96.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. In his last start, Oct. 16 in the NLDS against the Mets, he averaged just 93.8 mph on his four-seam fastball, with a maximum of 95.4 mph.
When Buehler finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2021, he threw his four-seamer 44.7 percent of the time. This year, he threw it just 29 percent of the time — still the pitch he throws the most, but not the weapon that it once was.
At his best, Buehler had not just the gas that he could get into triple digits, but four other pitches — the cutter, a knuckle curve and sinker. He’s since added a sweeper and a slider, throwing the slider just 1.3 percent of the time during the season and not at all against the Mets.
It’s not just season-to-season changes, but Buehler changed up his repertoire between his two postseason starts this season — a clunker in Game 3 of the NLDS that saw him hit around for six runs over five innings against the Padres and then a scoreless four innings against the Mets in Game 3 of the NLCS.
“I think the weather and the stadium has something to do with it,” Buehler said Sunday. “I think never having thrown here (at Yankee Stadium), I’m not sure if that will kind of continue.”
It was 68 degrees with a 5 mph wind for Buehler’s start in San Diego earlier this month and 51 degrees with an 8 mph wind for his start at Citi Field in the NLCS. It’s expected to be 54 degrees with a 6 mph wind for first pitch at Yankee Stadium tonight.
While Buehler’s platoon splits were relatively even this season (.833 OPS in 167 plate appearances by right-handed hitters and .890 by left-handers in 177 plate appearances), the Mets had just one left-handed hitter and one switch hitter in their lineup against Buehler. The Padres, who had just eight whiffs against him, had four lefties and a switch hitter. Tonight, the Yankees will put four left-handed hitters in their lineup against him, including Juan Soto, who is 2-for-10 in his career against Buehler, but hasn’t faced him since 2022, before his second Tommy John surgery.