Special to Yahoo Sports
At 4for4, we take using strength of schedule to a different level with our signature metric, schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA. By removing schedule bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an apples-to-apples manner.
Making decisions on who to draft at ADP can come down to several factors, but for this article, I’ll point out some players who have an easier start to the season than others so that you can maximize points right out of the gate.
By ensuring a solid start to the year in your fantasy football leagues, beginning 3-1 or 4-0, we can vastly increase our odds of making it to the fantasy promised land in the cold months of winter: the playoffs.
In a fantasy football league where six teams out of 12 make the playoffs, there’s a 92% chance of making the playoffs if you start 4-0; conversely, if you start 0-4, your odds are 9%.
I omitted elite players whom you’d be drafting anyway and focused more on the middle-to-late-round guys who we sometimes have difficulty distinguishing from one another.
Jared Goff, Lions (Yahoo ADP: 105.3)
He’s not the spiciest of QBs and doesn’t get you the rushing upside of some other signal callers, but Jared Goff has a ton of talented weapons and is fairly inexpensive. Goff was the QB7 in overall fantasy points last season and has a pretty sweet schedule to start off 2024.
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The Lions have an early bye in Week 5 but start out with the Rams, Buccaneers and Cardinals, who were 28th, 29th and 23rd, respectively, in QB aFPA last year. Goff pairs well with someone like Brock Purdy, who has the opposite strength of schedule.
Goff’s being drafted seven positional spots later than where he finished off last season with no downgrades in the O-line or supporting cast, so he also presents some value.
Jerome Ford, Browns (Yahoo ADP: 121.8)
With Nick Chubb set to start the season on the PUP list and miss the first four games (at minimum), it’s presumed that Jerome Ford will be RB1 to start the Browns’ season. He was the RB17 in half-PPR scoring last season, and as the starter from Weeks 3-17, he averaged a respectable 14.9 touches per game, which translated to 933 all-purpose yards.
The Browns have a beautiful early season RB schedule with just one opponent out of their first five ranking above 25th in RB aFPA in 2023, including the Commanders, who were dead last in that category. Ford’s Week 1- 5 opponents surrendered an average of 22.3 half-PPR points per contest to enemy backs. If he can fend off D’Onta Foreman for the lead role, the 24-year-old has fantasy RB2 upside for the current price of an RB4 (RB37).
Chicago Bears WRs
The Bears have just one opponent in their first four games that was in single digits in WR aFPA at the end of last season, which was the Colts. The other three defenses were ranked 22nd, 28th and 26th, yielding an average of 32.8 half-PPR points to opposing wideouts in 2023. All three Bears WRs are in play in 2024 but none of them come particularly cheap in drafts.
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DJ Moore – WR18, 39.6
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Keenan Allen – WR35, 83.2
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Rome Odunze – WR48, 100.1
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers
The Packers have a pretty soft road ahead of their Week 10 bye. Only one team was ranked within the top 10 in WR aFPA which were the Cardinals at spot No. 10. This is a tough receiving room to navigate as it’s filled with young talent. Dontayvion Wicks is my choice due to the lower draft price and upside but all of them are draftable.
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Jayden Reed – WR37, 95.8
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Christian Watson – WR41, 112.6
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Romeo Doubs – WR51, 131
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Dontayvion Wicks – WR59, 129.1
More analysis from 4for4: An expert’s cheat sheet to dominating drafts on Yahoo
This article was originally published on 4for4.com
A proud alumna of the UGA Grady College of Journalism, Jennifer Eakins has been working in the sports industry for well over a decade. She has had stints with CNN Sports, the Atlanta Hawks and the Colorado Rockies. Her first fantasy football draft took place in 1996 where she selected Ricky Watters with the first overall pick, and she has been a fantasy degenerate ever since.