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You’re going to hear often this season that no team has ever won three straight NFL championships. That will be inaccurate.
It has happened twice. In 1929-31, the Green Bay Packers won three straight NFL titles with head coach Curly Lambeau. That came when the championship was determined by best record; there were no playoffs. Then, in 1965-67, the Packers did it again. The last two of those championships were the first two Super Bowls. There was a rich NFL history before the Super Bowl era, no matter how much it’s ignored.
So three titles in a row has happened, but it says something about what the Kansas City Chiefs are chasing that we have to refer back to grainy footage of Vince Lombardi or to when Babe Ruth was still in his prime. No team has ever won three Super Bowls in a row before, and that’s what the Chiefs have in front of them. They’d be the first to do it and since we haven’t seen it yet through 58 Super Bowls, it’s possible we wouldn’t see it again in our lifetimes.
The rest of the NFL has to be kicking itself for giving Kansas City this opportunity. Last season’s Chiefs team was good but far from great. It was a frustrating season that included losses to mediocre teams like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders. But in the playoffs the Chiefs did their thing, winning four games in a row, including a thrilling Super Bowl in overtime. The rest of the NFL had a good shot to scoop up a ring before Patrick Mahomes got another, and they wasted their chance. Now good teams like the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have to wonder if they’re playing the role of the 1990s New York Knicks and Utah Jazz to Michael Jordan‘s Chicago Bulls.
The Chiefs should be better this season. First-round draft pick Xavier Worthy and free-agent addition Marquise Brown bolster a receiving room that was a problem at times last season, though a potential suspension for Rashee Rice could detract from that group. The pass catchers are joined by all-time great tight end Travis Kelce, who showed last postseason that he’s still capable of greatness even though he’s about to turn 35 years old. The defense arrived in a big way last season and was a driver for the Chiefs’ bonus Super Bowl championship last season when the offense was off from its norm. Even though cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was traded to the Tennessee Titans this offseason as the Chiefs kept an eye on the salary cap, the defense was mostly young and should be good again. And then there’s Mahomes, who has three Super Bowl rings, three Super Bowl MVPs, another AFC championship, two regular-season MVPs and is already in the discussion for the best quarterback of all time. The Pro Football Hall of Fame is already a foregone conclusion.
There were eight back-to-back Super Bowl champions who failed in their chance to win a third Super Bowl in a row. For some, like the 1968 Packers, 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers or 1999 Denver Broncos, they got old in a hurry or had key retirements. It’s rare for a team to win two straight Super Bowls and believe they’re even better before the attempt at a third in a row, but the Chiefs should feel that way.
And they’re focused on what a third straight title would mean for all their legacies.
“Everybody talks about it,” linebacker Nick Bolton said. “[There has been] an undefeated season, it’s been done before. Winning back-to-back Super Bowls, that’s been done before. To be on your own in history, I think that’s special. I think everyone strives to be the No. 1 team to ever do that.”
Mahomes said: “You’ve already made your imprint on history, but now there’s something that no one’s done in the Super Bowl era. Obviously the Packers before there was the Super Bowl, but in the Super Bowl era, no one’s won three in a row. And that kind of just takes you to another upper level, I guess you could say, as a team.”
History is on the line for the 2024 Chiefs. We’ll talk about Mahomes, Kelce, Andy Reid and these Chiefs as long as NFL history is discussed, but the conversation would change if they got a third Super Bowl in a row. This Chiefs team would then own a special place in NFL history. And they know it.
Offseason grade
The Chiefs would have had a nearly perfect offseason if they could have found a way to retain cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. They did retain defensive lineman Chris Jones on a five-year deal worth a little less than $159 million. They also re-signed defensive lineman Michael Danna on a three-year, $24 million deal. Sneed wasn’t happy to be on the franchise tag so he was shipped to the Titans. That’s not a small departure considering Sneed’s versatility was key to Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive scheme. But it’s hard to keep everyone together, which is one reason a Super Bowl three-peat has never happened. The Chiefs were able to add receiver Marquise Brown and backup quarterback Carson Wentz in free agency. Brown got just $7 million over one year, one of the best bargains in free agency for a former first-round pick who has a 1,000-yard season in his past. Critics liked the Chiefs’ draft, which started with receiver Xavier Worthy and his record-breaking speed in the first round and continued with a strong pick of BYU offensive tackle Kingsley Suamataia in the second round. There weren’t a lot of other notable moves (though there was a full share of offseason drama). Losing Sneed can’t be ignored but retaining Jones and adding receivers Worthy and Brown made for a nice offseason.
Grade: B
Quarterback report
Not much more can be said about Patrick Mahomes. Nobody will remember that he had a down 2023, by his standards. His yards dropped from 5,250 to 4,183 from the season before, touchdowns went from 41 to 27 and interceptions rose from 12 to 14, a career high. His 92.6 passer rating was by far the worst of his career. And all that will be remembered about Mahomes’ 2023 season years from now is that he won his third Super Bowl, leading a game-tying drive in the final seconds of the fourth quarter and a game-winning drive in overtime after the 49ers kicked a field goal. He threw for 333 yards, two touchdowns and won another Super Bowl MVP. Nobody cares about a temper tantrum at the officials over an offsides penalty in a loss to the Bills or a pick-6 in an ugly loss to the Raiders on Christmas. Mahomes turned his worst regular season into another legendary chapter in his already all-time great career. That statement should be depressing for every other NFL team.
BetMGM odds breakdown
The Chiefs are favored to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM, though the offseason didn’t start that way. The 49ers were slightly favored, but their contract drama combined with some good offseason additions by the Chiefs flipped the odds. Kansas City is +550 to win the Super Bowl. At -250 to win the AFC West, they are the heaviest favorite among all NFL teams to win their division. Patrick Mahomes is +500 to win NFL MVP, and no other player is shorter than +900. The Chiefs are not just the favorites but the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl. No team has gotten more bets or money in the Super Bowl market at BetMGM than Kansas City.
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Although the Chiefs ended last season with a victory parade, it wasn’t a signature year for the offense, Kansas City ranked ninth in yards and 15th in points, the least-efficient Andy Reid offense in about a decade. It also slotted 26th in rushing touchdowns, and that’s the worst Reid rank in that stat since his third season with the Eagles, way back in 2001.
“Of course the offense came around in the second half and postseason — that’s why the Chiefs are the defending champs. And Isiah Pacheco was a big part of that rebound. Over his final 10 starts (including the playoffs), Pacheco went for 933 total yards and eight touchdowns. Some injuries held him back in the second half, but Pacheco had three top 8 fantasy performances in the final two months, including a RB2 finish in Week 17.
“All running backs carry notable injury risk and perhaps Pacheco has a little more risk tied to him, given his aggressive, contact-seeking running style. But after two years he’s clearly established himself as the featured back in an offense helmed by Reid and Patrick Mahomes, and we’d like exposure to that type of player. Pacheco is a reasonable pick in the late-second round of Yahoo drafts (his current ADP is 21), and a nifty value if he slips into the third round of your league.”
Stat to remember
Last regular season, Travis Kelce averaged 65.6 yards per game, his lowest mark since 2015. Then, in the playoffs, Kelce averaged 88.8 yards per game and had three touchdowns. Kelce scored just five times in 15 regular-season games.
At some point Kelce, who will turn 35 years old on Oct. 5, is going to hit the wall. In NFL history, no 35-year-old tight end has ever posted a 1,000-yard season. But the Chiefs don’t care about 1,000-yard seasons. Like last season, they just need Kelce to be great in the playoffs. That might lead to another drop in playing time for Kelce in the regular season. He played 77% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps last season, his lowest mark since 2014. Part of that was because Kelce was working back from a knee injury that kept him out of the Chiefs’ opener, but it provided a template. The Chiefs can hold Kelce back a bit in the regular season to ensure he’s at his peak for the playoffs, when he plays his best and the Chiefs need him most.
Burning question
What will happen to Rashee Rice?
When the Chiefs finally got fed up with their other options at receiver and started to rely heavily on rookie Rashee Rice, the offense got better. Rice had a fine rookie season. In his final 10 games, counting playoffs, Rice had 69 catches, 780 yards and four touchdowns. It seemed like his second year would be much bigger.
Then Rice had a troubling offseason. He was part of a multi-car accident in Dallas in which he was racing at high speeds. He then left the scene. There’s a chance Rice is suspended by the NFL, perhaps even later in the season, and that uncertainty affects the Chiefs’ season. They do have more options at receiver, with rookie Xavier Worthy coming aboard and Marquise Brown as an intriguing free-agent addition. Kansas City also relied heavily on running back Isiah Pacheco in the playoffs, and that should continue into this season. But Rice’s status will be a looming issue for the season.
Best-case scenario
The Chiefs’ defense was second in the NFL in points and yards allowed last season. Defensive excellence is less likely to repeat than offense year to year, but let’s imagine the Chiefs’ defense stays at about that level. Kansas City’s offense struggled a bit last season, finishing 15th in points and ninth in yards, but that seemed like an anomaly. If we assume that Patrick Mahomes plays like he did his first five seasons as Kansas City’s starter, it’s not that outrageous to think the Chiefs could have a top-three offense and defense this season. Kansas City has never had a great defense and a great offense in the same season of the Mahomes era. It’s on the table this season. The best the Chiefs have done in the regular season with Mahomes is a 14-2 record in 2020. Could Kansas City go 15-2 or 14-3 with Mahomes winning another MVP, and then go on to take a historic third straight Super Bowl? Absolutely.
Nightmare scenario
The Chiefs finished 11-6 last season and that seems like their floor. Maybe there’s some outlandish story in which Jim Harbaugh completely turns around the Chargers and they upset the Chiefs for the AFC West title, but that seems very unlikely. And the Raiders or Broncos winning the division seems nearly impossible. There’s a reason Kansas City is a huge favorite to win the division. The Chiefs could struggle a bit if the aging curve finally catches up to Travis Kelce, the receivers are a problem again due to Rashee Rice’s off-field issues or Xavier Worthy being slow to pick up a complicated offense, and the defense has normal regression. That could lead to an early playoff exit, which has never happened to Mahomes. During the Mahomes era the Chiefs have not lost in the playoffs earlier than overtime of the AFC championship game. A regulation loss in the AFC title game would be their worst outcome since the 2017 season, which is ridiculous. A division title with a playoff loss short of the Super Bowl should never be unprecedented for a team and also a massive disappointment, but it would be for the 2024 Chiefs.
The crystal ball says …
Very good teams like the 1974 Dolphins, 1976 Steelers and 1990 49ers were set up very well for a third straight Super Bowl and lost, mostly because it’s very, very hard to get through the NFL minefield three seasons in a row without being upended. Injuries happen. Teams aiming for you improve. Many playoff games are close, decided by a play or two and eventually the coin won’t flip on your side. Think of how history is different if Jet Chip Wasp is incomplete (or holding was called), the Bengals don’t get called for hitting Patrick Mahomes out of bounds, the Bills squib kick with 13 seconds left, James Bradberry isn’t called for holding on third down, Tyler Bass hadn’t missed wide right, Zay Flowers didn’t fumble right before the goal line and that punt hadn’t hit a 49ers blocker. The Chiefs haven’t been lucky but a lot of 50/50 breaks have gone their way.
There hasn’t been a Super Bowl three-peat, and not because there hasn’t been a team good enough to do it. It’s just unlikely that everything lines up perfectly three seasons in a row. The Chiefs are better than last season. They have all the ingredients to win another Super Bowl. But I’ll go with the probabilities and say the Chiefs won’t take home a historic three-peat. At some point they’re going to hit a red light in the playoffs and Mahomes won’t be able to save them, hard as that is to believe.