Can you feel it? Football is really back and in the air. A new college football video game has finally been released after more than a decade and NFL training camps are opening up. This is the one of the best times of the year, which calls for a Four Verts column to kick off training camp and preview the first four teams to open full camp, each with high expectations of their own.
Chicago is slowly rebuilding the Monsters of the Midway
Ok, maybe this headline is a bit hyperbolic, but the point is that the Bears defense should be pretty damn good this year. Last season it got off to a rough start; according to rbsdm.com, the Bears defense ranked 31st in expected points allowed per play (0.223) over the first four weeks. Only the Broncos were worse in that timespan, which included Denver giving up 70 points to the Dolphins. That’s how bad it was for the Bears — but things changed.
Linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards started playing like the big-ticket free agents they were, the Bears got some solid play out of their young secondary, and depth started to develop along the defensive line. Their defensive performance really picked up when Chicago sent a second-round pick to the Commanders for pass rusher Montez Sweat, who immediately made a major positive impact. Over the final nine games of the season where they had Sweat last year, the Bears ranked fifth in expected points allowed per play (-0.110).
That’s a massive improvement, and it’s the kind of improvement that head coach Matt Eberflus needed in order to keep fans and analysts from calling for his job. If his defense is going to perform comparably to their late-season performance from 2023, the Bears have a chance to put forth their most memorable season in a very long time. Each level of the defense now has reliable playmakers. Sweat on the line, Edmunds and Edwards at the second level, and Jaquon Brisker, Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson in the secondary are legitimate pieces to build a good defense around.
There’s also depth that they can reasonably develop into quality players throughout the rest of their defense. Tackles Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens, end Austin Booker and cornerback Kyler Gordon can still be solid contributors. Gordon in particular took great strides toward dependability last year after a rough rookie season.
Even though all of the talk is about Caleb Williams and the revamped Bears’ offense, Williams’ rookie year would be made exponentially easier if the Bears’ defense can live up to expectations. There isn’t much reason to be down on them on that side of the ball. They’ve already shown they can play well, have room to improve as the younger players gain experience and will be returning to the same scheme under the same coach. Barring injury, this has a chance to be one of the best defenses in the league.
Everything rests on Ravens’ revamped backfield
Despite having a fantastic season that almost ended with a trip to the Super Bowl, the Ravens find themselves somewhat rebuilding on the offensive side of the ball. Starting offensive linemen John Simpson, Kevin Zeitler and Morgan Moses have moved onto new teams. Running back Gus Edwards has rejoined his former Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman with the Chargers. That’s a lot of experience gone from one of the better offenses in the league a year ago.
However, the Ravens still have the blessing of a two-time MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson who is joined by Derrick Henry at running back — which might just be the most perfect run game pairing in the league. If the Ravens want to get back to the AFC title game, it’s going to have to be on the backs of their superstar backfield.
The Ravens’ rebuilt offensive line has traded out experience for potential. Four of their projected starters (Andrew Vorhees, Tyler Lindenbaum, Ben Cleveland and Roger Rosengarten) are on rookie deals. Lindenbaum is the only young player they have with extensive starting experience, which will undoubtedly be needed at center as they ingratiate a new group. Ronnie Stanley has been up and down due to injuries over the recent portion of his career, but if he’s moving back in the right direction that’s a huge plus for the Ravens offensive line.
Expectations for the group up front should be low, which will put more pressure on the quarterback and running back. That’s a plan that might be able to work when the quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the running back is Derrick Henry. Henry has been one of the few backs in the modern era to remain effective following sky-high workloads. Despite leading the league in carries in four of the past five seasons, he’s never fallen below 1,000 rushing yards and has scored double-digit touchdowns in every season since 2017. That’s not the most scientific way to dissect efficient running back play, but it does show that Henry is still capable of carrying a big-time workload, which will probably be necessary again for him.
Jackson’s presence will open things up for Henry, easing his transition behind this very green offensive line. Beyond the backfield, the Ravens have some questions they quickly need to find answers to. Tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are certified as one of the top tight end duos in the league. Wide receiver is a bit shakier. Zay Flowers was a breakout star as a rookie and should see a ton of targets this season, but the Ravens will still need improved versions of Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor to pick up where they left off from last season.
Jackson and Henry with the ball in their hands a lot will probably be the Ravens’ best way to attack and get around some of their shortcomings as they figure out what the next era of this offense looks like. Last season, their first with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, was a much-needed change of pace from the prior years in terms of how they were running the offense. Their success in 2024 will largely be based on how well Jackson and Henry can literally run the offense.
Texans defense needs to take big strides in 2024
There might not be a team with more buzz and excitement this season than the Houston Texans. It’s easy to see the reason why: C.J. Stroud. Stroud was flat out one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL as a rookie, and his season was so impressive that the Texans immediately entered “win now” mode. They made trades for Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon this offseason and were able to retain the services of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who interviewed for several head coaching jobs.
The offense should be a great unit barring injury, but they won’t dictate the success of the entire season. For the Texans to get past teams like the Ravens and the Chiefs in the playoffs, the defense will need to make a big improvement in year two under head coach DeMeco Ryans.
In terms of coaching, the Texans shouldn’t be worried about where they are. Ryans is one of the more creative and well-renowned defensive minds in the league and got big seasons out of young players like Will Anderson and Derek Stingley. The Texans’ youth and overall lack of depth (this team did go 3-13-1 in 2022) hurt them at times, but the framework for a sustainably good defense is there. They were about an average defense in 2023, which should actually be somewhat encouraging considering where they were prior to Ryans being hired. To be fair to the Texans, they did go out and add veteran star edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who should make a hellacious pass rushing duo with Anderson.
There are some points of concern for the Texans, though — especially through the spine of the defense. The interior defensive line doesn’t appear to have any difference makers, even though that position group is filled with veteran talent. The linebacker room was really inconsistent last year, but they’ll be rolling with the combination of Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, and Henry To’oTo’o. If just one of those players significantly improves from where they were last year, it would be a huge, needed boost for the Texans defense.
Houston’s cornerback room should raise some eyebrows as well. Stingley is one of the best corners in the NFL. That position is locked in. After Stingley, they’re likely looking at rookie Kamari Lassiter and Desmond King to man down the other cornerback spots. Both of those guys have the profile of slot defenders, so it’ll be interesting to see how they decide to deploy those two considering the overlap in their skill set. There isn’t much depth behind those three, so they’ll really need a good fortune of health because there’s a severe talent dropoff in the position group.
This is the year Ryans will really prove himself as a developer of talent. There’s a lot of potential here, but at the very least the Texans should be able to rack up sacks and turnovers just due to the top-end talent on their roster. Down-to-down performance might need some work, but that’s where Ryans can really put his mark on this defense.
What actually matters for the Chiefs?
After last season, Kansas City feels like they have ascended to a different plane of existence compared to the rest of the league. Everyone saw how flawed they were and how difficult playing offense was in certain games, but they still won the Super Bowl against arguably the most talented team in the NFL. Then they drafted Xavier Worthy and signed Hollywood Brown, at least giving them an improved wide receiver room over what they had last season. In a vacuum, just plopping Worthy and Brown into an offense might come with tempered expectations, but all things are possible through Patrick Mahomes.
This Chiefs team is not perfect and they still have questions to figure out on the offensive side of the ball. Who wins the left tackle battle (and are they actually capable)? How will they decide to mesh Brown and Worthy considering they’re both smaller receivers? Can Jared Wiley pick up some slack in case this is the year Travis Kelce gets old? Can the running game get back to being a useful component of the offense? Even though the Chiefs are better, they have flaws that could derail their chances to three-peat as Super Bowl champions.
But will it matter? The defense should still be among the best in the league. Andy Reid is still designing an effective offense. And again — Patrick Mahomes. Winning three Super Bowls in a row would be incredibly difficult, but the Chiefs showed last year that the regular season didn’t really define who they could be by the time the postseason came. Slowing down an offense with Mahomes is always going to be difficult and once the one-game samples of the playoffs start, anything is possible.
This is more of an existential question than a deep-dive or a breakdown. The Chiefs could be 0-5 after the first chunk of the season and no one would be willing to count them out of eventually winning the Super Bowl. They’re in a different space. They have Patrick Mahomes. The same rules don’t apply to them, even though there are some spaces to be concerned about what this team has on the roster. Doubt them at your own risk. Or don’t. There’s no reason to at this point.